Open Member Briefing: Road to COP31: The Australia-Pacific Opportunity

Pacific's Moment in Global Climate Talks

The road to COP31 centres on a historic compromise reached at COP30 in late 2025: Türkiye hosts the main conference in Antalya from 9-20 November 2026, but Australia assumes the presidency of negotiations, granting it exclusive authority to shape outcomes, draft texts, and drive ambition on fossil fuel phase-out and finance.

This arrangement emerged after Australia withdrew its long-standing bid to co-host with Pacific nations in Adelaide, a move that disappointed Pacific leaders, including from Papua New Guinea, who saw it as a chance to highlight frontline climate impacts. Instead, the Pacific gains a pre-COP gathering—likely in Fiji, Palau, or Tuvalu—where ministers and officials will experience climate realities firsthand, from coastal erosion to forced relocation, aiming to build momentum for stronger commitments at the main summit.

The stakes are high for low-lying island states facing existential risks from warming already locked in; inaction could accelerate displacement and economic collapse in the region. For Australia, the role offers leverage to advance its renewable energy credentials and regional partnerships, but it also exposes contradictions as the world's second-largest fossil fuel exporter. Progress on new climate finance goals—targeting at least USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035 from public and private sources—will prove critical, especially for developing nations.

Non-obvious tensions include the Pacific's push for loss and damage funding versus Australia's domestic political constraints on coal and gas exports. The pre-COP location matters greatly: hosting in vulnerable islands could galvanise attendance and outcomes, strengthening Australia's negotiating hand, but logistical and political challenges remain in the lead-up.