WEBINAR - Lessons from our journey towards a net zero gas future in the ACT

Gas Transition Stakes

Australia's federal government unveiled its Net Zero Plan in September 2025, setting a 62-70% emissions reduction target by 2035 from 2005 levels. This national ambition builds on the 43% cut pledged for 2030, but it still positions natural gas as a bridge fuel for hard-to-abate sectors like steelmaking until low-carbon alternatives scale up. In contrast, the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) is forging ahead with more stringent measures, having legislated net zero emissions by 2045 under the Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act 2010. Interim targets include 65-75% reductions by 2030 and 90-95% by 2040, making the ACT a frontrunner among states and territories.

The ACT's gas phase-out gained momentum with a 2023 regulation banning new network connections, the first step in eliminating fossil fuel gas use entirely by 2045. This policy stems from the 2022 'Our Pathway to Electrification' position paper, which outlines a shift to 100% renewable electricity—already achieved since 2020—to power homes, transport, and industry. The move addresses the fact that, post-renewable electricity milestone, gas and transport remain the largest emission sources. By preventing new connections, the ACT avoids locking in future emissions, projecting savings of 236,728 tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2045 beyond those from related planning policies.

Real-world impacts hit hardest in Canberra, the ACT's main urban area, where 139,000 existing gas connections serve households and businesses. Residents face the need to replace gas appliances with electric alternatives like heat pumps and induction stoves, potentially lowering long-term energy bills due to cheaper renewables but requiring upfront costs of thousands per home. Businesses in industrial zones must adapt heavy equipment, while heavy transport shifts to electric or hydrogen options. Low-income families and renters risk being left behind, as body corporates in multi-unit buildings delay upgrades, leading to calls for subsidies and equitable support programs. Nationally, this local push contrasts with federal efforts to secure domestic gas supplies through a proposed 2027 reservation scheme, highlighting tensions between rapid decarbonization and energy reliability.

Concrete stakes include deadlines: the ACT's current climate strategy ends in 2025, with a new one in development to guide the next phase. Costs could run into billions for grid enhancements, appliance rebates, and worker retraining—gas industry employees need skills in electrical trades or EV servicing to avoid unemployment. Risks of inaction loom large: missing interim targets could exacerbate climate impacts like extreme weather, already costing Australia billions annually. In 2025, built environment emissions dropped 3%, but faster electrification is needed to hit 2030 goals. Surprising angles emerge in stakeholder frictions—manufacturers welcome gas reservations for supply stability, while environmental groups push for stricter methane curbs, noting Australia's fossil methane emissions require radical cuts per the 2025 Climate Change Authority report.

Trade-offs abound: prioritizing electrification boosts air quality and reduces health costs from gas combustion, but rushed transitions could spike short-term emissions if backups rely on diesel. Counterarguments from the gas sector warn that premature phase-outs deter investment, potentially causing supply shortfalls as coal plants retire. Data from 2025 shows electricity sector emissions plummeting over 50% since 2020 under ambitious scenarios, underscoring the feasibility yet underscoring the need for coordinated national-state action to avoid fragmented outcomes.