Future of U.S.-Europe Relations: A Discussion with Dr. Lawrence Freedman

Transatlantic Strain Intensifies

The transatlantic relationship has reached a precarious point one year into Donald Trump's second presidency. Long-standing U.S. complaints about European free-riding on defense have evolved into active pressure, including demands for dramatically higher military spending and a reimagined NATO where Europe assumes primary responsibility for continental security.

Recent events crystallized these tensions. In early 2026, Trump renewed ambitions to control Greenland for strategic Arctic reasons, threatening military options and imposing or threatening tariffs on Denmark and other NATO allies who resisted. Although he later backed away from force and tariffs amid backlash from Congress, European leaders, and markets, the episode damaged trust irreparably and highlighted how U.S. policy now treats allies as leverage points rather than partners.

At the Munich Security Conference in February 2026, European leaders responded by pledging accelerated defense investments and discussing 'NATO 3.0'—a reframed alliance with greater European command roles, such as recent handovers of key bases to European leadership. By 2029, Germany's defense budget is projected to surpass combined UK and French spending, signaling a shift in burden-sharing.

Non-obvious tensions abound. While Europe ramps up spending and seeks strategic autonomy to hedge against U.S. unreliability, this risks antagonizing Washington, which still expects massive purchases of American arms and cooperation on issues like Ukraine. Divisions within Europe persist: Eastern states prioritize U.S. nuclear and military presence against Russia, while others push for independence. Meanwhile, Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and rapid military reconstitution—adding divisions and boosting ammunition production—raises the cost of any transatlantic disarray, as a weakened NATO could embolden Moscow in the Baltics or beyond.

The stakes involve concrete risks: potential NATO fractures could leave Europe exposed to Russian aggression without full U.S. backing, force trillions in additional defense costs amid strained economies, and disrupt trade worth hundreds of billions through lingering tariff uncertainties.