The Steady CEO: From Surviving to Steady Workshop

Trade Pressures Intensify

Canadian businesses entered 2026 battered by a U.S.-led trade war that began in early 2025. Initial 25% tariffs on non-CUSMA-compliant goods expanded to steel, aluminum, lumber, and autos, disrupting supply chains and inflating costs. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business reported 63% of small firms facing higher expenses, 53% with reduced profits, and 48% seeing lower revenue. This economic strain has left many enterprises in survival mode, with CEOs navigating uncertainty that erodes confidence.

PwC's survey of 133 Canadian CEOs revealed stark pessimism: just 27% expect the domestic economy to improve, a drop from 42% the prior year, compared to 61% global optimism. Trade concerns dominate, with 53% worried about U.S. policies and 35% forecasting slimmer margins. Slower adoption of AI exacerbates the lag, as firms struggle to innovate amid rising operational pressures. Regional disparities add complexity—resource-heavy provinces like Alberta fare better at 2.5% projected growth, while manufacturing hubs in Ontario and Quebec hover around 1.4%.

Burnout has emerged as a critical undercurrent, fueled by these stressors. A national survey found 39% of employees, including leaders, reporting exhaustion, up from 2023 levels. For a 500-employee firm, this translates to over $3.4 million in annual productivity and salary losses. Economic volatility from tariffs heightens workloads, emotional fatigue, and job instability fears, particularly among younger generations. Geopolitical ripple effects, like China's retaliatory duties on Canadian exports, compound the strain, slashing volumes by double digits in late 2025.

Non-obvious tensions lurk beneath the surface. Immigration policy shifts, intended to curb overloads, now squeeze employers amid a demographic cliff, with fertility declines demanding skilled inflows to sustain growth. Yet public sentiment favors cuts, potentially delaying infrastructure and resource projects. Affordability crises persist, with high housing costs and job market weaknesses hitting unevenly. Businesses face a paradox: invest in productivity amid narrow margins or risk falling further behind U.S. competitors, where capital per worker dwarfs Canada's 37 cents per dollar.

Stakeholders clash on paths forward. Governments push the One Canadian Economy strategy to dismantle interprovincial barriers, potentially unlocking $110-200 billion in growth, but implementation lags. CEOs eye AI and market expansion for resilience, yet high marginal tax rates on investments hinder progress. The USMCA review looms as a pivot point—resolution could stabilize chains, but failure risks deeper fragmentation.