Food Export Market Overview: The United Kingdom

UK Food Trade Turbulence

The UK's food trade landscape is undergoing significant shifts due to post-Brexit adjustments and recent bilateral deals. The full implementation of the Border Target Operating Model (BTOM) in 2025 introduced new physical checks, updated certificates, and additional costs for medium-risk animal and plant imports, with temporary suspensions on low-risk plant products extending into 2026. This has compounded complexities from Brexit, where non-tariff barriers equivalent to 2-12% tariffs have raised trade costs, particularly for perishable goods.

The UK-US Economic Prosperity Deal, signed in May 2025, traded concessions in steel and automotive sectors for increased access to US agricultural products. This includes a tariff-free quota of 13,000 tons for US beef and 1.4 billion liters for ethanol, valued at around £21 million for beef alone in prior years. However, lingering phytosanitary and labeling requirements align closely with EU standards, limiting US pork imports despite the UK's $2.7 billion pork market dominated by EU suppliers.

Simultaneously, UK-EU relations are resetting through a new Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement, with the Food and Drink Federation outlining 10 priorities to support manufacturers. Exports to the EU fell 23.4% over five years, totaling a loss of 1.6 billion kilograms. The agreement aims to reduce burdensome certificates and border checks, but requires communicating changes to global suppliers, potentially reverting UK import approaches to EU norms and restricting cheaper non-EU imports.

Stakes are high with deadlines looming: applications for UK tariff suspensions close on February 4, 2026, affecting 300 duties set to expire mid-year. Potential 10% US tariffs on UK goods from February, amid disputes, could exacerbate the 3.6% drop in UK imports seen in mid-2025. Consequences include heightened food insecurity for low-income households, with Brexit-linked inflation adding 8 percentage points to food prices in some categories.

Non-obvious tensions arise from trade-offs: aligning with EU standards could inflate UK beef prices by blocking low-cost imports from Australia or the US, benefiting EU suppliers but harming consumers. Counterarguments from UK farmers highlight threats to herds and livelihoods, while surprising data shows underutilized quotas—like only 5,249 tons of Australian beef imported against a 43,333-ton allowance in 2024—due to price disparities. Stakeholders, including the National Farmers' Union, warn of years needed to recover losses, underscoring the delicate balance between global diversification and regional stability.