Weather and Water Information Session and Workshop | Integrating research and science

Deepening Drought Pressures

Australia's southern states endured serious to extreme rainfall deficiencies from 2023 through 2025, with 2025 seeing below-average soil moisture and declining inflows to storages in many areas. By November 2025, national surface water storage stood at 69.3% of capacity, down from 73% at the start of the year, reflecting low inflows amid dry patterns. This trend has continued into 2026, exacerbating pressures on urban water supplies in Melbourne, Adelaide, and Perth, where desalination output has surged to meet demand.

The Bureau of Meteorology has bolstered its water information role under the Water Act, including expanded hydrological services through the Australian Water Outlook for forecasts and projections. Recent shifts in long-range forecasting emphasize comprehensive ocean-atmospheric inputs over traditional indicators like ENSO, aiming for more robust seasonal outlooks. Concurrently, federal water market reforms mandate new data standards and reporting, with final regulations due by July 2026 and full obligations phased in by 2027, compelling better transparency in water allocations amid scarcity.

Water utilities and catchment managers face mounting challenges from climate variability: intensified extremes demand improved early warnings for floods and droughts, while long-term decisions on infrastructure confront deep uncertainty from changing catchments, vegetation shifts, and evapotranspiration. Closer ties between BOM's science advancements and the water sector aim to deliver decision-ready tools, yet trade-offs persist—prioritizing immediate risk management versus investing in collaborative research that may yield benefits years later. Inaction could amplify costs, with utilities already quadrupling desalination in some cities and rural sectors facing productivity hits from unreliable water.

These dynamics highlight a critical juncture: southern Australia's hydroclimate remains vulnerable after consecutive dry years, while northern areas have seen contrasting floods, underscoring uneven national impacts. The push for integrated research arrives as stakeholders seek to translate BOM's updated services into practical gains for supply security, environmental flows, and economic stability.