ULI & PwC Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2026 Global Report Launch (Americas and Europe)

Real Estate's Selective Recovery

Early 2026 finds the global real estate industry emerging from the longest period of monetary tightening in decades. After rate hikes that froze transaction volumes and compressed valuations from 2022 onward, policy easing has begun to thaw markets, yet the rebound is anything but even-handed.

The just-released ULI-PwC Emerging Trends reports capture this inflection. In the Americas, executives note improving but still only “fair” conditions, with investment sales volumes already climbing sharply. Demand for data centres, driven by artificial intelligence and cloud computing, keeps national vacancy rates below 2 percent and most new facilities pre-leased at elevated rents. Senior housing stands on the cusp of a demographic cliff as the oldest baby boomers reach 80 this year, pushing occupancy to records while new supply remains constrained.

Europe strikes a more pragmatic note. Professionals have moved beyond last year’s cautious optimism to a sober assessment shaped by interest rates that, although declining, remain far above the near-zero levels of the previous decade. Deglobalisation concerns have more than doubled in two years, compounded by shifting US trade policies that complicate cross-border capital flows.

The concrete stakes are measured in trillions of dollars of assets held by pension funds, insurers and sovereign investors. Misallocation now can lock in losses for years; successful bets on the right submarkets can deliver outsized returns in an otherwise flat environment. Lenders face walls of maturing commercial mortgages originated when rates were near historic lows; inability to refinance or exit positions at acceptable terms could trigger forced sales and further price pressure. Cities and local economies feel the fallout through lost development fees, property taxes and jobs when projects stall.

Less visible are the internal trade-offs. The new industry consensus—“back to basics with new tools”—rewards operators who combine traditional fundamentals with data analytics and technology for precise asset selection and operations. This precision leaves slower or smaller players at a disadvantage, widening the gap between haves and have-nots. In Europe, real estate’s potential to address national priorities from housing shortages to energy security clashes with investor reticence driven by geopolitical volatility. Across both continents the AI infrastructure boom’s appetite for reliable power pits rapid growth against sustainability pledges and local grid constraints.