Planning for the future (Dementia: what next? series)

Britain's dementia epidemic is accelerating, driven by an ageing population and recent scientific breakthroughs that could alter its course—but only for those who plan ahead. By 2040, over 1.4 million people in the UK are projected to live with the condition, up from nearly one million today. This surge places immense strain on families and the economy, with annual costs already at £42 billion and set to double by then.

Recent policy shifts underscore the urgency. In July 2025, the UK government unveiled its NHS 10-Year Health Plan, committing to a Modern Service Framework for frailty and dementia by spring 2026. This aims to shift care into communities, creating neighbourhood health centres and integrating teams to support patients at home. Yet, the removal of the 66.7% dementia diagnosis rate target from NHS guidance for 2025-2026 has raised alarms, signalling potential deprioritisation amid rising needs.

Scientific advances are reshaping possibilities. Anti-amyloid drugs like lecanemab and donanemab, approved in the UK by late 2025, target Alzheimer's plaques to slow progression. A December 2025 study revealed that 10% of over-70s—over one million people—show brain changes qualifying them for such therapies, far exceeding NHS estimates of 70,000 eligible patients. New blood tests, like p-tau217, cleared for use in 2025, enable earlier detection, while AI and tech initiatives promise diagnoses within 18 weeks for 92% of referrals by 2029.

These developments matter now because they extend the window for intervention, but dementia erodes decision-making capacity over time. Without early planning—covering lasting powers of attorney, wills, and care preferences—individuals risk losing control over their futures. Families, already providing most unpaid care, face staggering burdens: new data from early 2026 warns that one in three Britons born today will develop dementia, with lifetime costs per person exceeding £4 million, eroding inheritances and stability.

The impact ripples widely. Over 500,000 currently diagnosed in England alone, many families grapple with isolation post-diagnosis, navigating benefits, legal rights, and escalating care expenses. Initiatives like the July 2025 MinderCare service, using home monitoring to reduce hospital admissions, highlight tech's role in easing this. Yet, surveys show only 25% view dementia as a government priority, amplifying calls for action.

Planning secures wishes on health, finances, and living arrangements, reducing grief and conflict. With 2026 marking a pivot to outcome-driven care, as urged by sector leaders, delaying means missing out on emerging supports and treatments.