From Risk to Resilience: What climate change could cost the UK food system

Climate Costs Exposed

Climate change is amplifying pressures on the UK's food system, where imports account for 83% of fresh fruit and 45% of vegetables. The Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD), in partnership with EY, released a landmark assessment in October 2025 modeling ten key commodities under three scenarios to 2050. Under a business-as-usual pathway with 2.5°C warming, the system faces £2.6 billion in extra costs from disrupted supplies and volatile prices. Accelerated climate action, however, could boost domestic wheat yields and open opportunities for local production.

Recent events underscore the urgency. In 2024, prolonged rainfall and flooding led to the second-worst arable harvest in England since 1983, with wheat down 15%, oilseed rape 28%, and winter barley 22%. This compounded global shocks, like droughts in Brazil hitting coffee exports in 2025, causing price spikes. The UK's reliance on climate-vulnerable regions, such as the Mediterranean for a quarter of imports, heightens exposure. Farmers are bearing the brunt, with 80% citing climate threats to livelihoods and many exiting the industry amid a mental health crisis.

Consumers feel the pinch through rising prices and insecurity. Food inflation hit 5.1% in August 2025, outpacing overall inflation, while 18% of households with children faced food insecurity. Broader risks include nutritional dilution—elevated CO2 levels reduce zinc, iron, and protein in staples—and increased food safety hazards from mycotoxins and pathogens thriving in warmer, wetter conditions.

Non-obvious tensions emerge in policy responses. Net zero measures, like potential 24% carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) taxes on imported fertilizers, could force land sales to global corporations for solar or data centers, dropping self-sufficiency from 60% to as low as 40%. This pits emission goals against food security, as land shifts to trees or panels reduce arable capacity. Stakeholders diverge: retailers demand supply chain diversification, farmers seek investment for adaptation, and policymakers grapple with balancing short-term costs against long-term resilience. Inaction risks cascading effects, from shortages to civil unrest, as seen in historical collapses tied to food crises.