Export 101: Getting Started with Global Sales & Market Entry

Reshaping Global Trade

Global trade in early 2026 shows resilience amid rising barriers. Despite geopolitical frictions, merchandise flows hit record levels in 2025, driven by demand for manufactured goods and raw materials. Yet protectionist measures are accelerating, with the US leading the charge to address its chronic deficits.

The latest escalation came on February 20, when the White House proclaimed a 10% ad valorem surcharge on nearly all imports, effective February 24. This 150-day measure targets a goods trade deficit that ballooned to $1.2 trillion in 2025, up 40% over five years. Officials cite fundamental payments imbalances, with the current account deficit reaching 4% of GDP in 2024—double pre-2020 levels.

Impacts ripple across sectors. Importers absorb higher costs, potentially passing them to consumers and fueling inflation. Manufacturers dependent on foreign components, like those in automotive and electronics, face squeezed profits; some estimate added expenses in the billions. Small businesses, lacking scale to negotiate, are hit hardest, with risks of closures or layoffs if alternatives aren't found.

Deadlines loom large. The surcharge's initial span ends in July, but extensions are possible if deficits don't shrink. Non-compliance could trigger audits or penalties, while exemptions for certain allies' goods remain unclear. Inaction means ceding market share—firms ignoring diversification could see revenues drop 10-20% in affected lines.

Less obvious tensions emerge. While the US aims to boost domestic production, allies like the EU and Japan view the broad tariffs as indiscriminate, straining partnerships. China, meanwhile, redirects exports to emerging markets, gaining ground in Asia and Latin America. Trade deals with India (capping tariffs at 18% and easing on pharmaceuticals) and El Salvador (lifting barriers on textiles) create winners, but unevenly—Brazil's soy farmers benefit from China's pivot away from US suppliers, yet American agriculture suffers.

Surprising data highlights trade-offs. UNCTAD reports that despite barriers, global trade grew in 2025, with reallocations rather than contraction. Countries like Mexico and Vietnam see export booms, up 15-20%, as firms 'friendshore' away from China. But this fragments value chains, raising long-term costs by 5-10% due to inefficiency. Sustainability rules add layers—EU carbon border adjustments penalize high-emission exporters, forcing green investments or market exclusion.