BKS Webinar: Critical Minerals Policy and Challenges in the UK and Kazakhstan

Strategic Supply Race

Critical minerals power the technologies driving the clean energy transition, defence systems, and advanced manufacturing, from lithium in batteries to copper in grids and rare earths in magnets. Demand is exploding: the International Energy Agency projects it could quadruple by 2040, while the UK anticipates copper demand nearly doubling and lithium surging over tenfold by 2035.

The UK has long relied heavily on concentrated global supplies, often dominated by a few producers, leaving it exposed to export curbs, geopolitical tensions, and price volatility. China's restrictions on materials like gallium and graphite in recent years underscored these vulnerabilities, prompting Western nations to pursue diversification.

In response, the UK released its Vision 2035 Critical Minerals Strategy in late 2025, following the July 2025 Industrial Strategy. It sets concrete targets: 10% of demand met domestically, 20% via recycling, and no more than 60% from any single country by 2035. Up to £50 million in funding supports projects, with extensions of export finance eligibility to minerals like copper, uranium, and beryllium.

Kazakhstan stands out as a pivotal partner. It holds deposits of nearly every periodic table element and ranks as a major producer of 18 UK-priority minerals. Bilateral ties have deepened since the March 2023 Memorandum of Understanding on Critical Minerals Cooperation and the March 2024 bilateral roadmap. These have already yielded tangible results, including a UK-Kazakh joint venture recycling rhenium for Rolls-Royce—poised to supply 25% of global output—and a vanadium project targeting 10% of world demand.

Tensions arise from competing priorities. While diversification reduces reliance on dominant suppliers, partnerships with authoritarian-leaning states like Kazakhstan raise ESG concerns around environmental standards, governance, and community impacts. The strategy emphasises sustainable practices, yet critics argue international deals risk perpetuating global injustices in mining communities.

Recent multilateral momentum adds pressure: the US signed a critical minerals MoU with Kazakhstan in November 2025, and February 2026 saw a Critical Minerals Ministerial with broad participation including the UK and Kazakhstan, alongside financing explorations like up to $700 million for Kazakh tungsten. A planned C5+1 meeting in London further signals intent to shift from agreements to implementation.

The stakes involve economic resilience and security. Failure to secure supplies could delay net-zero goals, inflate costs for industries, and weaken defence capabilities amid global insecurity driving demand for minerals in advanced tech.