Adrift or Engaged? A Data Driven Multi-Engagement Model Shows Diverse Pathways to Student Success at US Research Universities

Engagement in Peril

American higher education is under siege from criticisms that students are not learning enough, remain disengaged, and receive poor value for their investment. This scrutiny has intensified amid political attacks, including those from the Trump administration, pressuring institutions to prove their worth in fostering student success and employability. A study drawing on 11 years of data from large public research universities reveals diverse pathways to achievement, countering narratives of widespread academic drift but highlighting persistent declines in engagement that began with the pandemic.

Engagement metrics, including academic participation, research involvement, and civic activities, fell sharply during COVID-19 and had not fully rebounded by 2023. This slump disproportionately affects lower-income and underrepresented students, who face barriers to opportunities that wealthier peers access more readily. Post-pandemic, students report less time volunteering, fewer on-campus jobs, and reduced faculty interactions—factors linked to lower retention and graduation rates. Nationwide, undergraduate enrollment rose 2% in fall 2025, driven by community colleges and certificate programs up 6.6%, but international student numbers dropped 17%, straining budgets further.

The stakes are concrete and escalating. Dropouts cost institutions dearly: a university with 10,000 students and a 10% attrition rate forfeits $1-2 million yearly in tuition revenue, often leading to faculty cuts, deferred maintenance, and diminished services. Students who leave without degrees earn 35% less annually, pay 45% fewer taxes, and rely more on social services, potentially costing the economy trillions in lost activity over time. Deadlines loom with new federal rules in 2025 scrutinizing program outcomes like earnings and debt, risking funding losses for underperforming schools. Inaction amplifies risks, as unaddressed mental health crises—49% of students eyed stopping out due to stress—fuel higher insecurity in housing and food, hitting enrollment and completion.

Non-obvious tensions simmer beneath the surface. While interdisciplinary programs blending skills with career prep grow in demand, traditional humanities majors shrink by 3-5% annually, pitting institutional legacies against market pressures. DEI restrictions in 2025-2026 complicate efforts to foster belonging, vital for retention, amid a polarized climate that leaves students feeling unsafe. Funding disinvestment shifts costs to students via tuition hikes—up significantly since 2015—widening gaps where Black and Latinx learners, more likely at under-resourced community colleges, graduate at rates 25-30 points below selective universities. Ghost students, inactive but enrolled for aid, inflate costs by an estimated $210 million yearly in states like North Rhine-Westphalia equivalents, skewing success data and eroding efficiency.